What's Your Exit Strategy?

As one can tell from my last post, I have been contemplating my China exit strategy and have been submitting applications to American law schools.  I have found myself going back and forth.  Aside from missing the people, friends, language and food, various issues have crossed my mind.  Is it worth it to pick up and leave everything here behind?  Is going to graduate school worth losing a few years of potential work experience, salary and connections? 

However, a few issues have started to make me think that maybe now is the right time to leave China.

• The China Law Blog has commented on some unusual signs in the Chinese economy. An increasing number of Chinese companies working with foreign firms from various industries have exhibited behavior such as walking away from deals, disputing credit, sending faulty products or not sending at all.  According to the author, "Chinese companies that are going out of business or believe they are going out of business have an annoying tendency to ship bad or fake or no product at all."
• For years rising housing prices have padded the pockets of Chinese middle class. The Wall Street Journal reported that housing prices have begun to fall (see this for a more recent report).  Only month to month data is reportable, but could this be indicative of a larger trend?
• The age of China as the world's factory is ending.  Prices are rising and the glut of blue collar workers, which to large effect fueled China's growth, is starting to disappear.  While the extend of China's manufacturing demise is disputed, it is doubtful China can remain an export oriented manufacturing giant growing at double digit growth indefinitely. 

The evidence here is far from conclusive, but enough to make one think hard about how long China's miracle of decades long growth can last, as well how long one should stay here.

Thoughts after three years

After three years in the capital Beijing, I took a few months off at home to prepare for graduate school applications.  Now that I've put some distance between myself and China, I thought I'd put a few points of reflection about my experience there.

-Anything and everything is negotiable.  This will resonate with people who live there and find that deals can be made anywhere, not just in street markets but also in restaurants, bars, shopping centers, and taxis.  On my way to Singapore, the staff at the airport informed me that my bags were overweight by some 20kg (40+lbs).  After being in China for so long, I knew there had to be some wiggle room.  And so, after some negotiation I ended up paying less than a third of the total fine. Not bad.

-The air really is bad.  Most of us put up with the poor air quality in Beijing, although comparing Beijing air to a few packs a day is a popular conversation starter at expatriate mixers.  But nothing will make you feel that difference like spending extended time in a country with blue skies every day.   Many in Beijing are familiar with the fact that the US Embassy publishes air quality indicators on Twitter, which often measure off the charts.  

-Chinese are very serious about studying abroad.  I've written before about how Chinese students are flocking to American undergraduate programs.  However, more and more Chinese are applying for US law degrees.  The LSAC (administers the LSAT exam) has published information showing that Asia, and specifically China and Australia, have been the big areas for growth in terms of the number of LSAT exams taken.  Obviously, most of the test takers I saw were Chinese when I took the exam in Beijing.  However, when I took the LSAT again in Singapore, a large number of my fellow test takers were (PRC) Chinese.  This trend will undoubtedly continue in the foreseeable future, but questions such as how bad the backlash will be as more Chinese students swarm American schools, as well as how much of this is a blind grab for foreign credentials, are all open questions.