Wednesday, November 9, 2011

What's Your Exit Strategy?

As one can tell from my last post, I have been contemplating my China exit strategy and have been submitting applications to American law schools.  I have found myself going back and forth.  Aside from missing the people, friends, language and food, various issues have crossed my mind.  Is it worth it to pick up and leave everything here behind?  Is going to graduate school worth losing a few years of potential work experience, salary and connections? 

However, a few issues have started to make me think that maybe now is the right time to leave China.
  • The China Law Blog has commented on some unusual signs in the Chinese economy. An increasing number of Chinese companies working with foreign firms from various industries have exhibited behavior such as walking away from deals, disputing credit, sending faulty products or not sending at all.  According to the author, "Chinese companies that are going out of business or believe they are going out of business have an annoying tendency to ship bad or fake or no product at all."
  • For years rising housing prices have padded the pockets of Chinese middle class. The Wall Street Journal reported that housing prices have begun to fall (see this for a more recent report).  Only month to month data is reportable, but could this be indicative of a larger trend?
  • The age of China as the world's factory is ending.  Prices are rising and the glut of blue collar workers, which to large effect fueled China's growth, is starting to disappear.  While the extend of China's manufacturing demise is disputed, it is doubtful China can remain an export oriented manufacturing giant growing at double digit growth indefinitely. 
The evidence here is far from conclusive, but enough to make one think hard about how long China's miracle of decades long growth can last, as well how long one should stay here.

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